Opposition chief Raila Odinga is facing a fresh political headache as vocal ODM Nairobi leaders Edwin Sifuna and Babu Owino signal an impending split over his deal with President William Ruto.
The ODM secretary general and Nairobi senator, Sifuna, and the Embakasi East MP, Owino, are leading a disgruntled camp.
The splinter group has already declared its intentions to run for key Nairobi seats in 2027, with Sifuna set to defend his senatorial seat and Owino to run for governor.
At the centre of the looming challenge for Raila is the apparent lack of equally vibrant replacements who can match the duo’s political stature and guarantee ODM victory in the capital.
Owino has made it clear he will run for governor with or without ODM’s backing.
“I know ODM cannot give me a ticket because [incumbent] Johnson Sakaja was endorsed at the Bomas of Kenya, but I love Baba. It doesn’t matter, because it is the citizens who vote,” he said.
In 2022, ODM lost the lucrative Nairobi governor's seat in the capital in what observers said was a last-minute gamble that saw it drop Westlands MP Tim Wanyonyi.
The party dropped Wanyonyi, who was seen as a formidable candidate, in favour of Jubilee candidate Polycarp Igathe, a late entrant in the race who eventually lost the elections.
Wanyonyi has since relocated to Bungoma county to run for governor.
Sifuna, whose fiery style has won him grassroots appeal, has warned he will quit ODM if it backs Ruto in 2027.
“I am willing to read whatever statement ODM comes up with, even if it insults me,” he declared earlier this month. “But the day the party decides to support Ruto, that one I will not read.”
Analysts warn their departure would leave Raila struggling to secure Nairobi’s strategic seats.
While opinion is split on whether the two can thrive without the party, their rhetoric is striking a chord with younger voters, particularly Gen Z, who are expected to play a decisive role in 2027.
Their skillful articulation of national issues and fearless defiance of entrenched systems have earned them admiration online and offline.
“They are asserting themselves and creating a niche so they become natural heirs and national leaders in 2027 and beyond,” political analyst Martin Andati said.
Mark Bichachi, another analyst, noted the duo is rewriting Kenyan politics.
“This election is about the people, not top politicians and their rhetoric. The people disagree with politicians, but politicians agree with the people,” he said.
Currently, Makadara MP George Aladwa, Ruaraka lawmaker TJ Kajwang, Antony Oluoch of Mathare and Dagoretti North’s Beatrice Elachi are experienced ODM Nairobi politicians.
However, only Aladwa has signalled intentions to run for the governor's seat.
Aladwa is ODM's Nairobi chairman and served as the last mayor of Nairobi City Council from 2011 to 2013.
For the Senate, no popular figure has come out to declare interest in Sifuna’s Senate seat. This compounds the headache in ODM for Sifuna’s replacement.
