Election material at a polling station during the 2022 general elections. /FILEA new survey by Tifa suggests that half of Kenyans don't believe the 2027 general elections will be free and fair.
The survey findings come just 25 months to the polls.
The poll was conducted between May 2 and 6, 2025.
It had a margin of error of +/- 2.17 per cent.
A total of 2,024 respondents were questioned using phone interviews in Kiswahili and English.
The respondents' contacts were collected through face-to-face (household-based interviews).
The survey covered nine regions of Central Rift, Coast, Lower Eastern, Mt Kenya, Nairobi, Northern, Nyanza, South Rift and Western.
The poll results released on Wednesday, May 7, show that only 20 per cent of Kenyans have confidence in the integrity of the 2027 general election, while 21 per cent are “somewhat confident”.
Nine per cent of those polled said they are not sure about the integrity of the 2027 polls.
When those who believe the next polls will not be free and fair were asked to state reasons while 30 per cent cited political interference and 29 per cent named corruption and voter bribery.
Some 23 per cent named lack of trust in the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC), while seven per cent cited violence and insecurity.
Refusal of the incumbent President or other candidates to accept defeat was named as a reason by only two per cent of the respondents.
The same number of respondents named technology failure as the reason they believe the 2027 polls will not be transparent.
Those with confidence about the elections (64 per cent) believe that none of the last three official presidential results were true compared to those who believe that they all were valid (32 per cent).
Thirty three per cent of those who expect the next elections to be free and fair believe all of the last three presidential elections produced valid results.
Those who believe that none of the last three election results were valid were 10 per cent.
“Looking forward to the next elections in 2027, there is a clear correlation between expectations of its integrity and views about the validity of the last three official presidential election results,’’ the report notes.
