The late former Prime Minister Raila Odinga’s last-born, Winnie Odinga, has stirred the country’s political waters, moving from the family’s political periphery to the centre of the storm.
While she was always a quiet but imposing figure around her father for years, her speech at the ODM’s anniversary exposed the political blood running in her veins.
The succession crisis in Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement, triggered by his sudden death, has seen her emerge as a key factor in the party’s decisions.
In Mombasa, she openly questioned the competence of her uncle Oburu Oginga and other leaders to manage what she termed the ‘complex relationship’ with President William Ruto’s administration. “Because it is only one Baba Raila Odinga who could manage it,” she stated, casting doubt on the current leadership.
The Eala MP has also taken a swipe at individuals she says are auctioning the ODM party in "bedrooms", comments that attracted criticism from Kileleshwa MCA Robert Alai.
The vocal ward rep asserted that Winnie’s “claim to the throne is because of the bloodline and not because of any unique thing she has done”. Winnie's bid to inherit her father's political mantle, a position insiders say was to be her brother’s—Raila Junior— is however, an uphill task defined by deep internal fractures.
She also faces the tide of a shifting national political landscape and the immense, singular legacy of Baba himself. Raila was not merely a party leader; he was the central pillar of Kenya's opposition for decades. He survived detention and torture in his pro-democracy campaign and was at the core of the group that birthed the 2010 constitution.
As a Prime Minister, Raila’s political handshake deals with rivals stabilised the nation, much as it frustrated his base. His final political act was entering a broad-based government with Ruto in early 2025, an issue at the centre of the ODM succession crisis.
His daughter is believed to resonate with the voices that see the Ruto deal as out of sync with younger voters weary of elite compromises. Analysts argue this deal accelerated the fissures in ODM's Nyanza backyard, reducing the chances of it going into 2027 as a monolithic voting bloc. But Winnie believes “change is possible, but it comes with a heavy dose of courage, persistence”.
During her remarks at an event by the Centre for Multiparty Democracy to celebrate Human Rights Day, in memory of Raila, she spoke straight.
“We live in a society which is still not equal. We are in a society where a young woman from Bondo can ask a simple question in Mombasa—and they say she is disrespectful—and a man can ask the same question and they say it is leadership,” she said.
“The future is bright as long as we make it brighter together…and may we carry the spirit of democracy, resilience and a touch of humour.” Winnie has challenged leaders to do better, especially in bridging the gap between the country’s two generational divides.
Her stance aligns her with the rebellious ‘Kenya Moja Alliance’ within ODM, led by figures like Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna and MP Babu Owino. The two are in the ODM camp that opposes Ruto's re-election and wants the party to field its own candidate in 2027.
Winnie’s emergence has given the team fresh impetus. Pundits say filling Raila's shoes requires Winnie to overcome a series of challenges, starting with simmering internal rivalry in the Odinga family. Raila’s widow, Ida Odinga, played down the tension, stating that Oburu remains the party leader, dismissing the claims as social media banter.
“Let’s keep it like that for the time being,” Ida said, sentiments observers say left no doubts of a future plan. But besides the family squabbles, which Oburu said would be handled behind closed doors, ODM’s dominance is visibly slipping away.
ODM leaders no longer speak with one voice, at a time when younger voters are prioritising economic survival. As such, many have chosen to be pragmatic, saying it is the only way to tap into goodies from Ruto’s government.
Oscar Omondi, who unsuccessfully ran for the Siaya Senate seat in 2022, says Winnie has an identity crisis to deal with too. While the Odinga name commands loyalty, it also carries the baggage of dynastic politics.
The political scientist says Winnie’s work is cut out, though: “She lacks a proper identity. She needs to work on her mastery of the Luo language.” Omondi adds that the Luo community norms make her acceptability a problem. “We come from a patriarchal society. We have good female politicians like Governor Gladys Wanga, Millie Odhiambo [Suba North MP], but they are yet to get there,” he said.
“If she were male, it would take a short time, just like her father, who emerged strong within five years after getting a paltry 600,000 votes in the 1997 elections.” Omondi, however, expressed optimism that Winnie can “rise if she is built”.
For her admirers, Winnie represents both continuity and potential change, describing her as a young, female, digitally-savvy leader who could bridge the gap to a new generation. She spoke to this at the CMD fete, saying, “I beseech the civil society to bring the two sides together, not the political sides, but the generational ones.” “We have a crisis and young people are angry. They don’t want to burn the house, but just be listened to. We can’t have a society where people are not bothered.” As one observer noted in an opinion article, her challenge is "to keep alive her father’s reformist spirit while charting her own path".
She must transform her phenomenal brand advantage as a scion of the formidable Odinga political dynasty into authentic, modern leadership that resonates beyond her father's base.
A fractured ODM widens Ruto's path to re-election as ODM leaders could end up negotiating individually with State House for survival.
In this respect, as Dr Charles Nyambuga observed, Ruto can reshape political alliances through patronage, potentially blunting any national anti-incumbency wave. And as Prof George Wajackoyah put it, “Winnie is the Gen Z of today. You point at her; you are pointing at the younger generation.”
INSTANT ANALYSIS
Winnie Odinga’s fiery debut demonstrates the will to fight, but whether she can assemble the coalition and craft the compelling vision needed to fill Raila Odinga's shoes remains an open and defining question for Kenya's political future.
