Explainer: Will Hezbollah lay down arms under US pressure?

Lebanon's cabinet on Friday approved an army plan to disarm Hezbollah and place all weapons under state control.

Five Hezbollah and Amal ministers walked out in protest, and Hezbollah supporters called for mass demonstrations.

Why is Lebanon moving to disarm Hezbollah? How are divergent sides reacting? What could happen next?

Why disarm Hezbollah?

A Shiite political and military group in Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged in the aftermath of the Israeli invasion of the country in 1982.

After the outbreak of the latest round of conflict between Israel and Palestine in October 2023, Hezbollah engaged in hostilities with Israel in support of Hamas.

A ceasefire deal was reached in November 2024, but Israel maintained troops at five positions in southern Lebanon and continued airstrikes against what it claimed were Hezbollah targets.

Since early this year, Washington has intensified pressure on Beirut to dismantle Hezbollah's armed wing within a timetable, warning Lebanon that failure to comply would mean continued Israeli military operations, the risk of escalation, and the loss of much-needed foreign aid.

In June, US envoy Tom Barrack visited Lebanon, delivering a US proposal over the full disarmament of Hezbollah.

In return, Washington would press Israel to halt its strikes and withdraw troops in a phased manner, while eventually mobilizing foreign funds for Lebanon's reconstruction.

Adnan Bourji, director of the Lebanese National Center for Studies, said the United States and Israel share the same goal of weakening Hezbollah, which they see as an ally of Iran and a key player in the anti-US and anti-Israel axis in the region.

How are different sides reacting?

The Lebanese government has agreed to seize Hezbollah's weapons, but stressed that Israel must first stop its violations of Lebanese sovereignty and withdraw its troops.

On July 31, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun announced that the government would require Hezbollah and other armed groups to hand over weapons to state control.

On August 5, Prime Minister Nawaf Salam said that the army had been tasked to prepare a plan by the end of August to ensure all weapons would come under state authority by year-end.

Hezbollah has firmly rejected disarmament, insisting its weapons remain essential to Lebanon's sovereignty and defense. Hezbollah leader Sheikh Naim Qassem called it "an illegitimate decision made under American and Israeli dictates."

"The resistance will not surrender its weapons while aggression continues and occupation persists, and it will fight if necessary to confront this American-Israeli project, no matter the cost," Qassem warned.

Israel has hailed Lebanon's move. In a statement on August 25, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said it will consider "reciprocal measures," including a phased reduction of its military presence in the south, coordinated with a US-led security mechanism, if the Lebanese army enforces disarmament.

A senior Hezbollah official warned that the group would mobilize supporters if the government moves to solidify the disarmament plan.

What's next?

After a cabinet meeting on Friday, Lebanese Information Minister Paul Morcos said that ministers approved the army's proposal but decided to keep details confidential.

Morcos added the army would begin implementing the plan within its available logistical, financial and human resources, and would submit monthly progress reports to the cabinet.

Analysts doubt the disarmament will proceed smoothly.

Lebanese political analyst Youssef Diab said Hezbollah sees disarmament as stripping the group of its political power, hence a matter of survival.

US pressure could push the Lebanese government into a confrontation with Hezbollah, warned analysts, noting that a hardline approach could deepen political divisions and provoke anger among the Shiite community, while the Lebanese army lacks the capacity to forcibly disarm the group.

The National, a United Arab Emirates English-language daily, quoted a Lebanese political source as saying that senior army officers appear reluctant to set a timetable for disarmament, given Lebanon's internal divisions over the issue and the lack of a clear Israeli commitment to withdraw troops and halt violations.

Some analysts said that many in southern Lebanon do not see the United States as an honest broker or one that could work in Lebanon's interests as they have witnessed the US support for Israel in its war in the Gaza Strip, and the occupation of Lebanese territories.