EXPLAINER: What you need to know about Sudan conflict

Two years ago, Sudan was thrown into disarray when its army and a powerful paramilitary group began a vicious struggle for power.

The war, which continues to this day, has claimed more than 150,000 lives.

In what the United Nations has called the world's largest humanitarian crisis, about 12 million people have been forced to flee their homes.

There is evidence of genocide in the western region of Darfur, where residents say they have been targeted by fighters based on their ethnicity.

As of March, the army has recaptured the presidential palace in the center of the capital, Khartoum—a key victory that it hopes will mark a turning point in the conflict.

Background of the conflict

Sudan has been mired in a brutal civil war since April 2023, when tensions between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) erupted into full-scale conflict.

The two factions, once allies in the 2021 military coup that ousted the transitional civilian government, turned against each other in a power struggle that has devastated the country.

Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF): This faction is led by General Abdel-Fattah al-Burhan and represents Sudan’s official military.

The civil war is the latest episode in a series of tensions that followed the 2019 ousting of long-serving President Omar al-Bashir, who came to power in a coup in 1989.

There were massive street protests demanding an end to his nearly three-decade rule, and the army staged a coup to remove him. However, civilians continued to push for democratic reforms.

A joint military-civilian government was then established, but it was overthrown in another coup in October 2021, when Gen. Burhan took control. Soon after, the rivalry between Gen. Burhan and Gen. Dagalo intensified.

A framework agreement to transfer power back to civilians was reached in December 2022, but negotiations to finalize the details collapsed.

The SAF controls air power and heavy artillery and has sought to maintain control over key government institutions.

Rapid Support Forces (RSF): The RSF was formed in 2013 and has its origins in the notorious Janjaweed militia, which was responsible for atrocities in Darfur, including ethnic cleansing against the region's non-Arab population.

Commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, commonly known as Hemedti, the RSF has built a powerful force that has intervened in conflicts in Yemen and Libya. It has also developed economic interests, including control over some of Sudan's gold mines.

Before the current conflict erupted, the RSF had been accused of human rights abuses, including the massacre of more than 120 protesters in June 2019.

The existence of such a strong force outside the official military has been seen as a source of instability in Sudan.

The RSF has leveraged guerrilla tactics and urban warfare to challenge the SAF’s authority.

Latest developments

As of March 2025, the SAF has made strategic gains in Khartoum, including the recapture of the international airport and the presidential palace.

This marks a significant shift in the conflict, signaling the potential weakening of the RSF’s hold on the capital.

However, fighting continues in other parts of the country, particularly in Darfur and the southern regions, where the RSF still maintains control.

The SAF’s recent successes follow months of intense battles to reclaim urban areas previously held by the RSF. The RSF, in turn, has been accused of restricting humanitarian aid and looting supplies, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis.

The army has indicated that it could announce the appointment of a new technocratic, civilian transitional government in the coming days or weeks.

The recapture of the presidential palace is an important symbolic victory, reflecting the SAF’s increasing momentum in pushing the RSF out of strategic strongholds in the central and eastern parts of the country.

If properly empowered, a new civilian-led government could help restore essential services, facilitate humanitarian aid delivery, and support the return of displaced civilians.

This could mark a dramatic shift from the humanitarian and displacement crises that have gripped the country for nearly two years.

Who controls which parts of the country?

At the start of the conflict, fighting centered around control of key installations. However, much of it has now moved into urban areas, leaving civilians as the primary victims.

The RSF controls Darfur, parts of Kordofan state, and, until recently, much of the capital.

The military holds most of the north and east, including the key Red Sea port of Port Sudan.

Humanitarian crisis

The war has led to one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters.

More than 12.5 million people have been displaced, with 8.9 million internally displaced and 3.4 million seeking refuge in neighboring countries.

Famine warnings have been issued for five of Sudan’s 18 states, including Khartoum, as aid access remains severely restricted.

Reports indicate that both sides have committed severe human rights violations, including attacks on civilians, ethnic-based killings, and sexual violence.

International response

Despite pledges of humanitarian aid, international assistance has been limited due to logistical challenges and restrictions imposed by warring factions.

The United Nations and various aid organizations have struggled to operate within conflict zones, and diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire have largely failed.

The conflict has also exposed geopolitical tensions, with regional and global powers backing different factions. Countries like the United Arab Emirates and Russia have been linked to the RSF, while Egypt and Saudi Arabia have supported the SAF.

This external involvement has further complicated peace efforts.

US policy toward Sudan

The Trump administration has thus far given little indication of its stance on Sudan’s conflict.

In his Senate confirmation hearing last month, Secretary of State Marco Rubio suggested he would take a hard line on the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) financial and military support for the RSF, which many argue is the principal driver of the conflict.

However, during a visit to Washington last week by UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan, there was no indication that Sudan was discussed.

Instead, attention focused on the UAE’s announced $1.4 trillion investment pledge in the United States over 10 years.

The only other statement from the Trump administration was a rejection of the RSF’s announcement of a competing government and constitutional document earlier this month.

That statement implicitly acknowledged the army’s constitutional role, marking a break from the Biden administration’s previous policy of treating both sides as equally culpable.

Prospects for Peace

Neither side has shown interest in a negotiated settlement to end the conflict. However, with the threat of mass famine, a divided country, and competing governments, now may be the best opportunity in nearly two years to push for de-escalation.

Since the war began, international focus has largely been on conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, allowing regional powers to shape Sudan’s conflict to their advantage.

The United Nations and the African Union have faced criticism for their lack of intervention.

A coalition of Western states could engage with neighboring and regional actors to push for peace while considering all sides’ interests. However, countries like the United States and the United Kingdom have so far avoided taking a clear stance.

An upcoming donor conference in London next month could serve as an opportunity for diplomatic engagement, if it includes the key parties to the conflict, who are currently not invited.